Elections and Ideology

Who Wants to Run?: How the Devaluing of Political Office Drives Polarization

The growing ideological gulf between Democrats and Republicans is one of the biggest issues in American politics today. Our legislatures, composed of members from two sharply disagreeing parties, are struggling to function as the founders intended them to. If we want to reduce the ideological gulf in our legislatures, we must first understand what has caused it to widen so much over the past forty years.

Who Punishes Extremist Nominees? Candidate Ideology and Turning Out the Base in US Elections

Combining a regression discontinuity design in close primary races with survey and administrative data on individual voter turnout, we find that extremist nominees—as measured by the mix of campaign contributions they receive—suffer electorally, largely because they decrease their party’s share of turnout in the general election, skewing the electorate towards their opponent’s party. The results help show how the behavioral and institutional literatures can be connected.

The Elusive Quest for Convergence

Does American political representation work as predicted by theory? On average, political candidates diverge considerably in their ideological positioning, but do they diverge less on issues of particular salience to their local constituents? We …

How Legislators Respond to Localized Economic Shocks: Evidence from Chinese Import Competition

We explore the effects of localized economic shocks from trade on roll-call behavior and electoral outcomes in the US House, 1990–2010. We demonstrate that economic shocks from Chinese import competition—first studied by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson—cause …

What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in …

Long-Term Consequences of Election Results

Voters in U.S. legislative elections receive markedly different representation depending on which party’s candidate they elect, and because of the incumbency advantage, the effects of this choice can persist for many years. What are the long-term …